LNP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Marty Hunt, since 2017.
Geography
Sunshine Coast hinterlands. Nicklin covers Nambour, Yandina, Cooroy, Mapleton and Kenilworth.
History
The seat of Nicklin has existed since 1986. The seat was dominated by the National Party until 1998, when the seat was won by an independent.
The seat was first won in 1986 by Brian Austin of the National Party. Austin had held the inner-Brisbane seat of Wavell since 1977, and moved after his seat was abolished.
Austin had been elected as a Liberal at the 1977, 1980 and 1983 elections, but defected to the Nationals following the 1983 election.
Austin was forced to retire in 1989, and the seat was won by Liberal candidate Bob King. However the result was declared void, and the 1990 by-election was won by the National Party’s Neil Turner.
Turner served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998, and in 1998 lost his seat to independent Peter Wellington.
Wellington won in 1998 with Labor and One Nation preferences. His vote helped prop up a minority Labor government, although only for a few months until a by-election gave Peter Beattie’s government a slim majority.
Wellington won re-election six times.
Wellington won Nicklin in 1998 with a 5.7% margin. This margin grew to a peak of 29.6% in 2004, but shrunk after that.
Wellington retired in 2017, and the seat was won by the LNP’s Marty Hunt.
Candidates
- Robert Skelton (Labor)
- Sue Etheridge (Greens)
- Michael Cardinal (One Nation)
- Riccardo Bosi (Independent)
- Marty Hunt (Liberal National)
- Allona Lahn (Informed Medical Options)
Assessment
Nicklin is likely to stay with the LNP.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marty Hunt | Liberal National | 8,732 | 31.7 | -1.4 |
| Justin Raethel | Labor | 6,931 | 25.2 | +8.3 |
| Steven Ford | One Nation | 5,790 | 21.0 | +21.0 |
| Mick Tyrrell | Greens | 3,413 | 12.4 | +2.8 |
| Jeffrey Hodges | Consumer Rights | 1,003 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Tony Moore | Independent | 972 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Rachel Radic | Independent | 705 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Informal | 1,278 | 4.4 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marty Hunt | Liberal National | 15,227 | 55.3 | +1.6 |
| Justin Raethel | Labor | 12,319 | 44.7 | -1.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Nicklin have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Nambour have been grouped together, with the remainder divided into north, south and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 50.9% in Nambour to 56.6% in the south, as well as 59% in the pre-poll vote.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 18.3% in Nambour to 21.2% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 21.0 | 12.6 | 56.6 | 4,388 | 15.9 |
| Nambour | 18.3 | 11.1 | 50.9 | 4,266 | 15.5 |
| North | 21.2 | 17.3 | 51.1 | 4,094 | 14.9 |
| West | 19.1 | 13.4 | 54.7 | 1,846 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 22.4 | 10.0 | 59.0 | 9,692 | 35.2 |
| Other votes | 21.3 | 14.3 | 53.7 | 3,260 | 11.8 |
Election results in Nicklin at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for One Nation and the Greens.
*Ben to fix up ‘Wellington won re-election…. 2009 and 2012’ should change to ‘2009, 2012 and 2015.’
I admit I was surprised this margin was that close last time and expect it to blow out a little more. A strong independent campaign in future would be the major competitor for the LNP’s new hold on this seat, as Wellington showed for a while and as Bolton now shows in neighbouring Noosa, but just can’t see ALP having a strong chance.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Riccardo Bosi, who got 0.5% in Eden-Monaro at the by-election a few months ago for some micro-right party, is running up here for some reason. Well, someone’s gotta come last.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
LNP keep but marginal
Australia 1 will win the seat when people know what Riccardo Bosi stands for.
Bosi will win the next one, it will be a wave that will clean up politics…I will enjoy the ride
WOW. Didn’t this seat get overlooked. I’m not saying Labor has won yet, but the fact there in with a shot is amazing. There were seats on the Gold Coast that got more coverage then Nicklin but were not as close of a contest as this one.
Agree PN
This missed my radar completely
Bosi is the reason this seat was deliberately overlooked…. when it is known what this great man stands for, the majors will be pooping their pants. 0.5% at eden monaro….5.0% this time in Nicklin where he wasn’t even allowed to be in the state to campaign….next time 50%…Bosi had more people on the ground handing out cards than either of the majors…this groundswell will be unstoppable
Nice prediction Bird of Paradise…. perhaps you should get to know him.
Labor has claimed this seat by 79 votes. This seat was not ceartainly predicted. Talk about an upset